At the risk of raining on the American president-elect’s parade, I write this letter as a word of caution: Barack Obama’s victory is the latest – perhaps the last – American bubble. No doubt Mr. Obama and his supporters ran an impressive campaign, drawing from the best there is in media management, both online and offline. Mr. Obama himself certainly has to be credited for galvanizing millions of previously alienated American citizens, primarily the young, the black, the latino, and combination thereof. He inspired them to make their way to the voting booths and make their voices heard. (Although, in all fairness, the misdealings and blunders of Mr. Bush, who may go down in American history as its most effective anti-hero, may also deserve some of this credit). Last, but not least, Barack Obama’s election is unquestionably a landmark in the history of a country that invented the computer mouse before it allowed people of darker skin to vote.
Obama’s campaign, in its own words, has succeeded in inspiring much needed ‘hope’ for ‘change’ in a country increasingly disillusioned with its institutions, both public and private. The president-elect has revived and renewed the American dream. Not that of a 3-bedroom house in the suburbs with a couple of SUVs in the garage and the now ubiquitous 40-inch plasma screen, but that of a country built on the founding fathers’ principles of liberty, fairness and opportunity. Not only has he conquered the hearts and minds of those at home, but also of many around the world, showing Gandhi-like universalism, in contrast with the old maxim that “all politics are local”.
Now, the campaign is over, and the president is elect. Discourse will give place to action, and hope to reality. With such a short political track record, the vote Mr. Obama received is, up and foremost, that of confidence. Once in power, maintaining such widespread confidence may prove a much tougher challenge than gathering it. Continuing to draw political support from a diverse spectrum of political interests, from the unions to Wall Street, over ill-defined denominators such as ‘hope’ and ‘change’, will not make it any easier for the Obama government to keep everyone’s confidence alive.
Breadth of support did not translate into a landslide victory either, as much as the Electoral College headcount would have us believe. It is popular support that sustains Congress, and thus the presidency, throughout the mandate. Of that, the Obama campaign garnished no more than two percent over majority. As the map of election results shows us in flagging colours, the country continues very much divided into its regions, creeds and beliefs. Of the gubernatorial elections, for instance, only one state changed the party in its stewardship: Missouri.
The well-known American political system of checks and balances is no help either. Political Science scholars have long told us that the American presidency has indeed very little power inside her own country, as she is constantly kept in check over domestic issues by both Congress and the Supreme Court. While this is a healthy institutional ensemble, that few would dare to challenge, one must ask whether it has anything to do with the United States’ recurrent and beligerant meddlings in foreign policy.
And if all else miraculously turned out to be a non-issue, the economic/military mess the United States currently finds itself in may be enough to push many of those high hopes for groundbreaking change into the back burner. Amid the current financial storm, Mr. Obama may find he has little room for manoeuvre or course-correction. In a crisis, strategy typically gives place to tactics, and principle to circumstance.
While it may condemn the choices of its predecessors, the Obama government will have to deal with what is, not with what could have been. While Barack Obama’s election is of unquestionable importance, symbolizing the turning of a page – if not a whole chapter – in American history, whether all the symbolism will translate into the solution to the endemic problems the country faces is yet to be seen. The shattering of this last hope, following the lengthening list of previous bubbles, from the NASDAQ to private equity to real estate to subprime, and of government tricks, treats and bail-outs, may only make matters worse.
Obama’s victory was in effect highly leveraged on hope. Obama’s ‘hope’ is not too dissimilar from the hope that the internet would radically change everything we do, that real estate prices would go up forever, or that the Fed could print enough money to plug all of the economy’s holes without leaving a dent on the credibility of its currency. Obama’s ‘hope’ is the despairing last throw of dice of a generation of Americans indoctrinated into chasing their ‘big break’, and that has grown all too familiar with ‘investing’ and consuming on credit. Alea Jacta Est.
Obama’s campaign, in its own words, has succeeded in inspiring much needed ‘hope’ for ‘change’ in a country increasingly disillusioned with its institutions, both public and private. The president-elect has revived and renewed the American dream. Not that of a 3-bedroom house in the suburbs with a couple of SUVs in the garage and the now ubiquitous 40-inch plasma screen, but that of a country built on the founding fathers’ principles of liberty, fairness and opportunity. Not only has he conquered the hearts and minds of those at home, but also of many around the world, showing Gandhi-like universalism, in contrast with the old maxim that “all politics are local”.
Now, the campaign is over, and the president is elect. Discourse will give place to action, and hope to reality. With such a short political track record, the vote Mr. Obama received is, up and foremost, that of confidence. Once in power, maintaining such widespread confidence may prove a much tougher challenge than gathering it. Continuing to draw political support from a diverse spectrum of political interests, from the unions to Wall Street, over ill-defined denominators such as ‘hope’ and ‘change’, will not make it any easier for the Obama government to keep everyone’s confidence alive.
Breadth of support did not translate into a landslide victory either, as much as the Electoral College headcount would have us believe. It is popular support that sustains Congress, and thus the presidency, throughout the mandate. Of that, the Obama campaign garnished no more than two percent over majority. As the map of election results shows us in flagging colours, the country continues very much divided into its regions, creeds and beliefs. Of the gubernatorial elections, for instance, only one state changed the party in its stewardship: Missouri.
The well-known American political system of checks and balances is no help either. Political Science scholars have long told us that the American presidency has indeed very little power inside her own country, as she is constantly kept in check over domestic issues by both Congress and the Supreme Court. While this is a healthy institutional ensemble, that few would dare to challenge, one must ask whether it has anything to do with the United States’ recurrent and beligerant meddlings in foreign policy.
And if all else miraculously turned out to be a non-issue, the economic/military mess the United States currently finds itself in may be enough to push many of those high hopes for groundbreaking change into the back burner. Amid the current financial storm, Mr. Obama may find he has little room for manoeuvre or course-correction. In a crisis, strategy typically gives place to tactics, and principle to circumstance.
While it may condemn the choices of its predecessors, the Obama government will have to deal with what is, not with what could have been. While Barack Obama’s election is of unquestionable importance, symbolizing the turning of a page – if not a whole chapter – in American history, whether all the symbolism will translate into the solution to the endemic problems the country faces is yet to be seen. The shattering of this last hope, following the lengthening list of previous bubbles, from the NASDAQ to private equity to real estate to subprime, and of government tricks, treats and bail-outs, may only make matters worse.
Obama’s victory was in effect highly leveraged on hope. Obama’s ‘hope’ is not too dissimilar from the hope that the internet would radically change everything we do, that real estate prices would go up forever, or that the Fed could print enough money to plug all of the economy’s holes without leaving a dent on the credibility of its currency. Obama’s ‘hope’ is the despairing last throw of dice of a generation of Americans indoctrinated into chasing their ‘big break’, and that has grown all too familiar with ‘investing’ and consuming on credit. Alea Jacta Est.
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